The greatest invention ever

The story of Noah’s ark and the great flood as we are told in the book of Genesis has many parallels with story of the great flood in the Epic of Gilgamesh. The similarities are many; just to name a few, there was an order to build a vessel; it was deemed to destroy all mankind, only a few righteous people survived, all kinds of animals are saved, birds are released to search for dry land after the raining stops, and finally, there is blessings and sacrifices in the end. So, is it pure coincidence or do these parallels tells us that there is something else behind these two stories?

In ancient times, many stories and tales were passed on from generation to generation as oral legends, so, from a literary point of view and based on the time of these events, one can argue that one oral tradition throughout the course of time became two different stories. To support this argument there is no much proof to rely on given the fact that there was no writing for instance, even as writing was invented and therefore used to record events, in the beginning it was rudimentary. Imagine how long it would take to make a copy of an entire book, not to mention the omission of entire words, spelling errors etc etc. Because of these facts, I believe that these two stories are the same, that is, one story/tale became two over time. If this is the case then, why is it that one story is not only sacred but also an act of a superior being? God, who created all men (humanity) to populate the earth, but later, destroyed them all (except Noah’s family) according to the Bible because they did not behave as he/she (God) demanded. On the other hand, the flood in the Epic of Gilgamesh is just an event/legend that happened thousands of years ago. What is more, the story of Noah’s ark and the flood is part of a very important book-the Bible, which is deemed to be the word inspired by God that cannot be questioned or challenged in its veracity, doubting or questioning the Bible amounts to sacrilege or a direct nonstop ticket to hell, if there one of course, but that is a different story.

Interestingly enough, when the intellectuals of the time were given the task to put together the bible (the bible is a collection of books), they did not include the two stories as part of the bible as they did with the two creations of Genesis (Yes, there are two creations). Some would argue that the reason is because they do not tell the same thing or because one is not a follow up of the other as it is supposed to be with the two creations in Genesis. Even the New Testament has the four Gospels that tell the same story of Jesus with a few additions or deletions according to the writer. However, let’s not forget that there are more gospels that were known at the time or have been discovered in recent times. So the question is; what was the original purpose of putting together a book that claims to have divinity in its contents? I think it was created to deceive or control humanity (Read how Constantine controlled his kingdom with the Bible, read the religious crusades, read the ongoing battle for the Promised Land).

Any good business person ceases any good opportunity, for instance; Bill Gates saw opportunity in computers and software. With fifty dollars (it has been said) he bought a program and later changed it around the way he wanted and bingo! The future empire of Microsoft and its windows operating system was born. Today Bill Gates is the reaches person in the world and windows is the dominant operating system in the planet. So, why not think that something similar happened some time ago with the Bible? Obviously, we cannot say that the two events are related to each other and therefore it is a valid comparison, however the fundamental basic idea is the same. Cease an opportunity, grab it, customize it so it fits your needs and put it out there to be something big. Now, we can come to the conclusion that the Bible did have a purpose when it was created, even if it was not to deceive, there might have been something else, perhaps power to suppress humanity.

Someone said “religion is the greatest invention ever made” and for many reason he/she was right. As it was done by the Scribes and Pharisees in the ancient Israel, today many fundamentalists (from any religion) use the contents of the Bible as tools for their own personal agendas. They know that the Bible taken literally is a powerful tool. If you read the New Testament you will find out that even Jesus refuses to take the Bible literally. In ancient Israel, the Scribes and Pharisees were in charge of interpreting God’s law and commandments, however, Jesus corrected this great misconception telling people that although the Pharisees and the Scribes claimed to be obedient to the law, and even appear so to the people, theirs was a false righteousness that disobeyed and subverted God's commandments.

If the story of the flood in the Book of Genesis and the Epic of Gilgamesh are not the same, one thing is for sure, it was a historical event. Here is my theory. Most likely there was a great flood, but did it engulf the entire earth or was it just exaggerated over time? In the area of Israel no evidence of a great flood can be found. In fact the exact opposite occurs. Evidence of no great floods is found. The area itself is very dry, dotted with high hills and in the city of Jericho, a settlement that dates back nine thousand years; there are no deposits of clay accumulation that can be found, clay is a characteristic of a great floods. (Flash floods do occur in some deserts). On the other hand we have The Mesopotamia area, which its geography makes it prone to flooding. It is a very flat valley surrounded by two rivers, the Euphrates and the Tigris, that when early rains, combined with the early melting of the snow from the Anatolia Mountains, the two rivers have been known to burst their banks and turn the entire area into a giant lake. This area more supports the idea of a great flood.

In sum, the similarities between The Epic of Gilgamesh and Noah's Ark are undeniably similar not only in the belief of a great flood, but also in small details that pull the two stories together. This, as well as the location of both Abraham and Gilgamesh's birth place along the Euphrates River in the Mesopotamia area where floods are not uncommon. From both of these factors we can say with almost certainty that a great flood did occur in the Mesopotamia Valley, rather than the entire earth, and that two different but very similar accounts of the flood were taken down, The Epic of Gilgamesh and Noah's Ark.

Call me crazy but this is just my WEE OPINION

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence has many definitions, some define as "intelligent machines" such as a robot, others define as "the study and design of intelligent agents" where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chances of success. No matter what definition you agree with, AI is a reality. Though it is important to make a distinction between computing power and the ability of computers to think, it all comes down to how fast a machine can perform an operation. Everything a computer does breaks down into math. Your computer's processor interprets any command you execute as a series of math problems. Faster processors can handle more calculations per second than slower ones, and they're also better at handling really tough calculations. Computers cannot think (as of now), they process information based on a given set of instructions. So, it is the computing power that has allowed AI to become what it is today.

Analytical Software, Expert Systems, Artificial Neural Networks, these are just a few names that were nonexistent 20 years ago. Today, Artificial Intelligence is a multibillion dollar industry. The uses and applications are widely varied.

Companies are taking advantage of AI and changing the way traditional tasks/methods in many industries are done. Many of us use the internet without realizing the behind the scenes that goes on every time you visit a website. Advertising is the biggest one, pay attention to those ads that are customized for you, many of them even contain your name, so how do they do it? AI and software. Here are a few industries and application that will be implemented in the near future.

• Sales forecasting
  

Many companies dedicated to retailing depend on sales forecasts for their success as a company. For them producing accurate forecasts is a critical activity, typical forecasting methods can introduce errors that can result in inefficiently allocating resources or planning, for instance, preventing stock outs is very critical for retailers. With the introduction of Artificial Neural Networks in forecasting the accuracy of its results is significant. Part of this is because predictors use advanced neural network technology which does not suffer from the limitations of traditional methods. In the future companies will not have to worry about past data because with this new technology forecasting will be made in real time that is, these systems will be able to see any changes in the patterns as the sales occur. This will help reduce inventory costs, improve planning and therefore save time and money.

• Industrial process control
  

Expert Systems are already in place in certain industries. Expert Systems are widely applied, from sensor validation through production change control, plant-wide optimization, and dynamic scheduling. Combining an ES and ANN technology can be very beneficial. For example in the future an Expert System with learning capabilities could acquire all the knowledge of the best operators and process experts in any industry, so then if a substitute operator is on duty and encounters an abnormal situation that he or she is not familiar with, then this Expert System will be able to help with diagnosis and advice.

• Customer research
  

With the introduction ANNs in customer research, companies have benefited tremendously. The applications are varied and have helped businesses to solve many problems. ANNs can be used to learn complex patterns of information about customers and generalize the learned information. With this information companies in the future will be able to predict customer satisfaction for instance. These systems will be able to identify the drivers of loyal customers; that is to say, what makes a customer become loyal. Using this information a system can be trained to analyze satisfied consumer behavior's and create customized advertizing that will turn these consumers into loyal customers.

• Target marketing
  

The methods used for advertising can decide the future of many companies, because ANNs do not need a lot of information to identify patterns, it can be used to avoid un-target advertising. ANNs are currently being used to create market segmentation. Classification and recognition problems have been identified as the most commonly cited applications of artificial neural networks; other applications go as far as predicting bankruptcy and loan default and also modeling consumer choice and advertising responses. If the current recession in the US was caused in part by the housing market collapse, an ANN system would have been able to predict all those bad mortgages or potential customers that would default their loans, sounds unrealistic, but it might have been possible to prevent it from happening.

• Risk management
  

In risk management, budgeting takes place in the early phases of a project, accurate estimates are very essential to ensure that a project gets sufficient funding; therefore, many project managers are seeking better ways to increase the accuracy of their project cost estimates. With the help of ANNs, they are able to predict how much a project will cost in the early phases of project design and planning. For instance, using ANN models project managers are able to identify at these early stages potential cost variations that might occur by the end of the project. Given these predictions they can put aside sufficient funds so that the project gets completed on time and also prevent over-budgeting and therefore devoting any extra funds to new projects/investments.

SB 1070

Is this the solution?

Arizona has passed the toughest and strictest anti-illegal immigration measure in decades in the United States, Arizona Senate Bill 1070, by doing so, controversy has erupted among those that support or condemn it. Even though, many claim that this bill do not promote racial profiling (mainly against Latinos), the core purpose of this law is deport as many illegal immigrant as possible. If the law would have been fully implemented, the police would need to consider three key provisions before calling the INS (they deport illegal immigrants). First, there has to have been a "lawful stop, detention, or arrest" to enforce another law. Second, during the course of that stop, detention, or arrest, a "reasonable suspicion" has to exist that "the person is an alien." And third, law enforcement "may not consider race, color, or national origin…except to the extent permitted by the United States or Arizona Constitution." Now, the question is, are these reasonable standards? The answer depends on who is responding. How many times have you (Any race other than Caucasian) been stopped (while driving) for no reason only to find out that apparently you crossed the double yellow line more than once? Or, how many times have you gotten away with a traffic violation because the person sitting next to you looked like the police officer?

So, instead of fighting over the legality or reasonability of these laws, let's look at the benefits and costs of legal and illegal immigration in the United States.

Anyone that has taken an introductory class in economics knows that in a cost benefit analysis, if the benefit is greater than the cost, it is a good investment/strategy from an economic point of view. Let's look at the argument of deporting all illegal immigrants. Many people seem to think that illegal immigrants (undocumented workers) should be simply deported to wherever they came from. This is not a good idea, both for our government and for our economy. To deport the approximately 14 million illegal immigrants, even if we knew where they all were, would cost billions of dollars in buses, airplanes, gas and food. Where would that money come from? Taxpayers? No one would like to pay more taxes, not even those that support massive deportations.

Besides, what harm are these immigrants doing us? Yes, they broke the law, a law that is currently broken, however, after arriving to this country they certainly contribute to our economy - after all, they buy things, start businesses, rent houses (which is important in today's housing market). YES! THEY ALSO PAY TAXES INCLUDING INCOME TAXES, there is a tax for almost anything that you buy. Yes, some illegal immigrants commit crimes. But so do legal immigrants, as well as the descendents of the Pilgrims. I fully support deporting illegal immigrants who are rapists, murderers and the like. However, most illegal immigrants are just ordinary people who seek to better their lives and those of their children, which is certainly the American Dream.

Consider an America without illegal immigrants. Let's examine our farms first. Who will be picking the crops? Americans used to working in offices, or even as janitors or McDonalds workers, are not going to be willing to work 12 hour days in the Florida heat picking oranges for minimum wage in substandard housing. To get enough workers, farmers must be willing to pay two, three, or many more times the wages they pay now. Farm products, therefore, will cost two, three or many more times what they cost now. Are you willing to pay $10 for a bunch of bananas during banana season? Even if you were, enterprising merchants would simply import foreign bananas and undercut the prices of American farmers. To deport illegal immigrants, therefore, would be to kill the American family farm. That surely isn't your intention, is it?

The same thing applies in cities. Would Mr. Merrill and Mr. Lynch of Merrill Lynch be willing to vacuum their own office? I doubt it. Mow their own lawns? Nope. While they would be able to pay for it, commodity prices would rise for you and I. We'd end up with hundreds of unclean offices, houses and unmowed lawns. Is that worth having a few fewer Spanish-speakers in America? Are you willing to change your standards of living because someone says "yellow Mr Yonson"?

These immigrants will integrate into American society in a few generations anyways and become as tightly woven into our societal fabric as the German and Italian immigrants of the early 1900s were, just as the Irish of 1860s before them were. Just like today, xenophobes claimed that the members of whichever immigrant group was demonized that week would never integrate into America, that they were destroying our American way of life, and that they would never learn English. Each time, however, the second-generation was bilingual, speaking English outside of the home, and Italian, German, Polish, Yiddish, Russian, Gaelic or some other language in the home, while their kids spoke English and only a few words of the language of the "home country."

The benefits of keeping immigrants coming in from whichever country keeps America a prosperous nation with one of the greatest standards of living in the world.

You be the judge, this is just my wee opinion.

The Globus Business Strategy

Is there a strategy to win?

Almost any professor would say that there is no secret to win this game; it all depends on the decisions made by the companies competing in the game. Well, that is 90% true, the remaining 10% is the fact that it is a game which means that as with any other computer game, it is a program, a program that responds to the user's inputs. Having said that you have to keep in mind that any decisions made by you will be entered as input for the different algorithms in the program, these algorithms make comparisons among the other companies and choose what the program considers to be the best. The point is, even if your decisions are the best according to your strategy, it won be, if all the other companies are making decisions that don't even make sense to you but does make sense for the program.

Read the manual, you might be tested on it. The manual is helpful is some ways but do not rely on it 100%. My co-managers and I read it and implemented our strategy based on the manual. IT DID NOT WORK!

The industry I played on was selling digital cameras.

We started by creating a strategy that focused on quality, meaning our products would be the best in the industry but also the most expensive ones. According to the manual, it said that consumers looking for high-end products did not mind paying higher prices. As it turned out, that was not the case. In the end it made sense, the program did not know our strategy which is the purpose of the game; however, the price was important factor as we later learned (our prices were way too high for the program, even though our strategy was to have high prices).

We run the company for 15 years; in the first 8 years we tried all kinds of decisions to maintain our strategy. We created the best products, Increased P/Q ratings; increased advertising, increased customer support, increased promotions, increased wages and compensations for workers but nothing seemed to work.

See our sixth place for FotoFun on year 8, also note how we lost 56 points in comparison with the previous year, meaning our strategy for quality was not working.

From year 9 till the end we reversed our strategy/decisions.

We manufactured the cheapest possible products, and also sold at the cheapest price. That meant, lowest P/Q rating ½ start, lowest advertising, lowest customer support, reduced salaries and compensation by 15 % in comparison with the industry.

Yes! That was the key, price is an important factor in this game, remember it is a software looking at numbers only not your strategy.

So, how to win the game? Simple!

Start by manufacturing at the lowest price possible and sell it at the lowest price possible in all regions, by doing this you will be increasing your market share which is good because even though you will selling your products at a lower price, you will make profits because of volume.

Having a huge market share means manufacturing more products, which means hiring more workers, DO NOT HIRE FULL TIME WORKERS, HIRE ONLY TEMPORARY WORKERS, the reason is, if you have to fire full time workers you will be incurring in enormous costs (Read the manual).

Your overall performance will be measured based on other factors such as;

Earnings Per Share, to increase EPS start buying back shares as soon as possible, this is key, less outstanding shares means higher EPS.

Stock Price, you will increase your stock price by increasing EPS.

Return on Equity, this will be increased by higher sales and higher profits.

Image Rating, this is a bit tricky because P/Q ratings affect image ratings, and because you will be manufacturing the cheapest products your image rating will go down, however, there are ways to bring it up. Once your company starts making profits, donate money to the different charities, improve the workers working conditions (read the manual about how to increase Image rating besides with product quality), keep in mind that any donations and any workers related improvement won make a difference right away, it usually takes two to three years, so start as early as possible.

My company FotoFun ended up in first place by year 15.

Good luck.

Smart Dust

Smart Dust - sensor chips with self organizing radio networks - each chip bounces messages to its neighbors.

Although the future of Smart Dust seems very promising in terms of its usability concept, as with other technologies, many challenges lie ahead to prevent it from being misused. In the past new technological developments, have brought with it unforeseen consequences at times causing tremendous damage to people as individuals or society as a whole, Smart Dust seems not to be the exception. Smart Dust technologies working as networked molecular particles with its capabilities of measuring, collecting, and sending information remotely can be misused in many different ways, here are a few.

Personal privacy seems to be a major concern for individuals. Many people fear losing personal privacy to tiny new surveillance devices. For example, if today a person can be followed or monitored using the GPS capabilities of a cell phone, in the future there will be no need for it anymore because Smart Dust could be sprayed on his or her clothing, to track that person. Therefore, if using nanotechnology, surveillance equipment that is invisible to the naked eye can be made, then, invasion of personal privacy won’t happen only in public places but also in private places, because these monitoring equipment would be hidden almost anywhere. On the other hand, if used properly the benefits of it can also be great. For example, Smart Dust can be used as a tracking device to monitor a person that cannot see or talk.

Moreover, if Smart Dust can be used as wireless networks, criminals can use it to steal critical information, be it personal or corporate. For instance; instead of hacking directly into servers and stealing credit card information from customers, a criminal can install equipment configured with the correct sensors and a proper software application in a small supermarket and record wirelessly credit card information from a credit card reader.

Another unintended consequence has nothing to do with the technology but, with the materials used to manufacture Smart Dust. Unfortunately, in this global economy profit takes over the well-being of people. For instance, in the past and also today companies engaged in the production and manufacture of electronic products (for example, computers) have ignored the consequences of using toxic materials in its components. Smart Dust being in the form of “Dust” poses the risk of the dispersal of non-biodegradable particles (the chips) throughout the environment and potentially altering the soil content for instance. This action would greatly alter the natural environment of, water sources, plants, animals and potentially food production for humans. Additionally, the risk of ingesting Smart Dust particles, through consumption, inhalation, or skin absorption, should be of great concern. E-waste is a great example to look at.

Finally, Smart Dust is also being developed in the military arena. Proponents argue that with nanotechnology and Smart Dust the US will have more capabilities to protect its borders or prevent another 9/11 from happening. In theory it seems a good idea, however, there remains unforeseen negative impacts. Consider for example, other information-dominant countries without strong US ties, they will also research counter technologies or hide their own surveillance developments using Smart Dust, this is very dangerous especially as adversarial relationship builds. In the end these very actions could trigger an unintended Smart Dust-type arms race between nations potentially ending up in cyber warfare.

So, while the benefits of Smart Dust could outweigh its unintended consequences, only the future will tell. As for us, at an individual level, it is necessary to educate ourselves about the subject. Some of the unintended consequences mentioned here could be just mere speculations, however, there are a couple that seem to be very realistic, invasion of personal privacy, and the potential for destroying the environment.

You be the judge, this is just my wee opinion.